Let Alex Smith play out his contract.

A lot of people have reported that the Chiefs are working on an extension for Alex Smith. I thought Smith was great at the end of last season, and I am confident in his ability moving into this year, but the overall risks of an extension outweigh the rewards for me at this point.

Extension. How much?

I do not know what his agent would ask for in a contract extension at this point, but I would think that a starting point would be somewhere in the Tony Romo / Matthew Stafford / Jay Cutler arena of $17-18 million a year. His current cap hit for this year is $7.5 million, which is a huge discount from the level of play he will give the Chiefs, so we can count that a plus for this season.

Injury?

The Chiefs have a revamped offensive line, so an injury is always a possibility, and Smith has only played in an average of nine games a season for his career. Some of those games have been due to being benched, but he has had his share of injuries, too.

Sophomore slump?

We are all planning on Smith improving next year from his respectable 2013 numbers, but if Dwayne Bowe continues to decline, there will not be much extra help for him to open up the offense. I hate to sound pessimistic, but I can remember having very high hopes for the Chiefs going into the 2012 season before the wheels completely fell off. I do not see it happening, but what if we are looking at another top 5 pick and are stuck with an average quarterback for too much money, which prevents us from moving on to another option (Matt Cassel ring a bell?).

Don’t forget the franchise tag

If he plays to a level that he commands more than we feel comfortable giving him after this season, then give him the tag for $17-18 million a year and see what happens. The Chiefs can start the planning process for the next quarterback (maybe Tyler Bray turns into something or the Chiefs draft an heir apparent). Alex Smith will be good, kind of likeTrent Green, but he will not be a Peyton Manning / Tom Brady type player that you cannot move on from.

Joe Flacco anyone? (Hoping to have to make this decision)

What if he goes all Flacco on us, and leads the Chiefs to a Super Bowl and they have to give him a contract that is worth more than his level of play deserves? Ask Baltimore fans how they are feeling about that Super Bowl victory. I have to say that I would take five years of an above average quarterback that is overpaid and hurts the cap in order to bring home the Lombardi Trophy in 2014!

Let me know if you can think of some benefits that would outweigh the potential negatives, but I can't see it right now.

Go Chiefs!

The Kansas City Chiefs will miss out on another strong draft.

The Kansas City Chiefs have not had the best track record in the draft over the last decade, but they have also had the unfortunate problem of being bad at the wrong time.  They have picked in the top 5 four times since 2008.  Now if you have a pick in the top 5 you expect to draft an elite player who will be an anchor on your team for a very long time.  Lets look at the four top 5 picks the Chiefs have had and also take a look at the strength of the drafts when the Chiefs were not picking in the top 5.

2013 Eric Fisher - Offensive Tackle

It is too soon to make a decision on Eric Fisher, but the Chiefs were faced with the one of the worst drafts in in a long time to have the first overall pick.  Again the verdict is still out on almost every one of the players in last year's draft, but the first impact player you see came in at pick no. 13 Sheldon Richardson of the New York Jets.  Kyle Long made the pro bowl at no. 20 for the Bears, but other than that there are some players with potential, but it is still considered a very weak draft after the first year of game tape.  Eric Fisher flashes potential, but he is a far cry from the impact that other offensive tackles taken first overall (Jake Long, Orlando Pace, and Ron Yary).  The Chiefs really could have gone quarterback for the first time in a long time, but the draft offered ZERO quarterbacks that were worthy of the first round, let alone the first overall pick (EJ Manual went in the first, but shouldn't have).  One plus is that Eric Fisher is the only member on this list that was drafted after the new collective bargaining agreement that brought the top draft pick pay scale out of the crazy contracts that you had with the other three.

2010 Eric Berry - Safety

Of the four Eric Berry is far and away the best pick.  He has made the pro bowl in every NFL season that he has been healthy, and the only thing I can complain about is the fact that his contract is out of whack with the others at his position in the league.  Until Jairus Byrd signed his free agent contract this year, Berry was the top paid safety.  I'm not saying that he shouldn't be paid among the top safeties, but the fact that he is still on his rookie contract speak volumes that he has probably been overpaid for his position over the years.  However, Berry is the caliber of player that you should get from a top 5 pick.  I would also consider his draft to be the strongest overall first round of the four players as well.  Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Russell Okung, Joe Haden, Earl Thomas, JPP, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas are a sampling of the strength of this draft.

2009 Tyson Jackson - Defensive End

The only one of the three picks that was widely criticized for being drafted this high, Tyson Jackson finally moved on to the Atlanta Falcons this year after robbing the Chiefs of millions for production that could have been filled by a 4th round pick in most drafts.  It isn't Jackson's fault that he was drafted about 20 picks higher than he was supposed to be, but he would have to be one of the Chiefs most disappointing draft picks based on the spot he was drafted and contract he was given.  This is another year that the Chiefs could have gone quarterback, but there wasn't anything after Matthew Stafford (who I'm not a big fan of) worth drafting.  Would you be happier with Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, or Pat White?  I can somewhat see why they took a chance on Matt Cassel after looking at that QB draft.  One again though, this has to be one of the worst drafts of recent memory.  Clay Matthews went at no. 26 to the Packers, but listen to the top 5.

1.  Matthew Stafford
2.  Jason Smith
3.  Tyson Jackson
4.  Aaron Curry
5.  Mark Sanchez


Would you rather have anyone other than Stafford over Jackson after what the others have done in the league?  The top 10 doesn't get much better from there.  I have to admit that at the time of the draft I wanted Aaron Curry, but I follow the NFL more than I probably should, and I cannot tell you who he is currently playing for, if he is playing at all.

2008 Glenn Dorsey - Defensive Tackle

Glenn Dorsey may have been the highest regarded can't miss prospect of the four coming out of college.  Berry was probably considered to be just as good of a player, but at this time in the league defensive tackle was considered a more important position than safety.  Dorsey wasn't helped by the move to a 3-4 defensive front after his rookie year as he was seen as a 3 technique tackle coming out of college, but he struggled to make the impact of a top 5 pick that you would expect.  He is a very similar player to Tyson Jackson and has had a solid career, but was really a block catching run stopper that failed to live up to his draft hype.  He also had a large contract and the Chiefs could have gotten the same production out of Mike DeVito (Undrafted Free Agent).  The overall draft itself was actually very strong, but the Chiefs were stuck in a tough spot at number 5.  I remember hoping for Matt Ryan to fall, but I would take Dorsey over the McFadden/Gholston sandwich he was in the middle of.  This draft also could be seen as stronger because its players have had the longest time period to prove their worth.  The miss on Dorsey was made up for by what I consider one of, if not the strongest Chiefs draft of all-time.  They were able to get Branden Albert, Jamaal Charles, Brandon Flowers, and Brandon Carr in the same draft.

What Might Have Been?

I know that it is very easy to say could have, should have, would have when it comes to the NFL draft. But I am not calling for the Chiefs to draft a different player in these drafts, I am making the argument that they have been unlucky in the years that they have drafted so high.  Look at the 2011 draft which is after the Chiefs only playoff appearance between 2008 and 2013 drafts.

1.  Cam Newton
2.  Von Miller
3.  Marcell Dareus
4.  AJ Green
5.  Patrick Peterson

Tell me you wouldn't take any of those players over Dorsey, Jackson, or Fisher.  I would take them all over Berry too!  Just for kicks throw in the next two.

6.  Julio Jones
7.  Aldon Smith

And don't foget...

11.  JJ Watt
14. Robert Quinn
18. Corey Liuget

That is a pretty strong draft.  By the way, the Chiefs ended up reaching for Johnathan Baldwin at no. 26 that year.  Jimmy Smith went one pick later to the Ravens.  Tell me he wouldn't fit well in Bob Sutton's press coverage.  To the Chiefs credit there were not a lot of great picks that happened around that spot in the draft, but Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick did go early in the second round.

I know that you could look at a lot of teams and say at least you're not the Raiders when it comes to top picks, which is true, but it would certainly be nice to be the Colts.  Lose a Peyton Manning and gain an Andrew Luck, but I guess the Chiefs chose to be the no. 1 overall pick a year too late.  2014 may not have the can't miss quarterback prospect, but it is highly regarded as one of the deepest drafts with at least 5 elite players at the top, and the Chiefs are sitting at no. 23 and then twiddling their thumbs until the end of the third round.

Just for fun the two previous times that the Chiefs had top 5 picks they went back to back with Derrick Thomas and Neil Smith.  That sounds a little better than Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson.

If Northwestern Players Win Union Bid, Say Goodbye to College Athletics as We Know it.

Let me start this post by saying that I am a former NCAA lower division football player, and I am well aware of the time commitment that it takes to be successful as a student athlete.  In no way am I against student athletes getting their piece of the pie for the billion dollar industry that college athletics has become.  However, the Northwestern Football Union ruling will change not only BCS college football, but every sport at every level will change.

Why?

The argument has long been that Division I football and basketball players need to earn a chunk of the millions of dollars that they are bringing in for their schools.  But if National Labor Relations Board regional director Peter Sung Ohr's statement that Northwestern football players are employees of the university turns out to be upheld and the players begin collective bargaining process, it will set a precedent that will be the end of a lot of small school programs and less popular sports at the collegiate level.

Ohr cited that the student athletes' time commitment and compensation tied to their on field performance qualified them as employees.  This designation will require more considerations from universities to provide all of the benefits that employees are guaranteed by law.

Compensation

The previous incentives for students to participate in college athletics were scholarships, exposure, and the general love of the game.  There are many athletes on every level that do not even get the benefit of scholarships due to their walk-on status or non scholarship schools.  The scholarship is compared by many to an unpaid internship that many students will use to get valuable experience and networking options.  Major college athletics can do a lot for an athlete's networking and exposure.  There is a reason why many of the one and done college basketball players choose to take that one year internship in college instead of going to the NBA's D-League or overseas to play professionally.  Brandon Jennings chose to go overseas instead of to college, but while it may not have hurt his draft status, I don't think that any fans were nearly as familiar with this game as they were with Blake Griffin or James Harden who chose the college basketball route in the same draft.

It is very easy to look at the University of Texas who, according to Forbes.com, brought in over $100 million in football revenue in 2013 and say that some of that money needs to go to the players.  I agree that these major football and basketball programs should be able to share that in some way beyond a nice weight room and living arrangements.  However, the precedent set citing time and performance based compensation would be factors that apply to every sport at every level.  Could a tennis player at Division II Grand Valley State University put in the same amount of hours that a football player at the University of Texas does?  Sure they could, they could put in more hours.  Will Grand Valley State be able to offer the same level of compensation to their student athletes that the University of Texas can? No, but based on the ruling they will have equal status because of time spent and performance based scholarship making them employees of their universities.  That is what will lead to problems for the smaller schools and smaller revenue sports.  I do not see how a non-scholarship school would be able to fund the employee status of their athletes and many students would miss out on the college athletics experience that is fueled mainly by the love of the sport that they compete in.  A walk on would also end up with more pay coming their way over the scholarship athletes because they are putting in the same amount of time and effort that scholarship athletes are.  On a side note, the least that the NCAA could do is up the amount of scholarships for the major sports programs to spread the wealth in to those athletes.

Recruiting Advantages

Let's say that a compensation package is agreed upon and the total value of the compensation package for each athlete is 60k based on their time put into their sport.  The traditional compensation of tuition along with room and board still need to be factored in.  Let's say that tuition at the private Boston College University is 40k, while tuition at the public University of Florida is 7k.  What kind of recruiting advantage would they gain from the 33k compensation difference from tuition differences?  It would also lead to more students staying in their home state due to the tuition difference between in state and out of state.  I am aware that their are advantages in facilities at every level of college athletics, but a nice dorm room or soaking pools are not quite the same as 30k in cash.

Solution

If major sports programs that bring in big bucks create their own association away from the NCAA that allows them to play by a different set of rules, I am completely fine with that.  The non revenue generating sports and other divisions could maintain their current umbrella and keep the scholarships that are extremely valuable to many college students to help them pay for the education these schools provide.  Believe it or not, even though they do not have the billion dollar television contracts that major conference football and basketball can potentially bring in, the other sports and lower divisions provide something very valuable to a majority of the NCAA student athletes and university stakeholders.  Like the commercials say, a majority of the college athletes will go pro in something other than their college sport and the "employee" status designated for the Northwestern football players could bring an end to that opportunity for a majority of these athletes.