Sunday, March 30, 2014

The Kansas City Chiefs will miss out on another strong draft.

The Kansas City Chiefs have not had the best track record in the draft over the last decade, but they have also had the unfortunate problem of being bad at the wrong time.  They have picked in the top 5 four times since 2008.  Now if you have a pick in the top 5 you expect to draft an elite player who will be an anchor on your team for a very long time.  Lets look at the four top 5 picks the Chiefs have had and also take a look at the strength of the drafts when the Chiefs were not picking in the top 5.

2013 Eric Fisher - Offensive Tackle

It is too soon to make a decision on Eric Fisher, but the Chiefs were faced with the one of the worst drafts in in a long time to have the first overall pick.  Again the verdict is still out on almost every one of the players in last year's draft, but the first impact player you see came in at pick no. 13 Sheldon Richardson of the New York Jets.  Kyle Long made the pro bowl at no. 20 for the Bears, but other than that there are some players with potential, but it is still considered a very weak draft after the first year of game tape.  Eric Fisher flashes potential, but he is a far cry from the impact that other offensive tackles taken first overall (Jake Long, Orlando Pace, and Ron Yary).  The Chiefs really could have gone quarterback for the first time in a long time, but the draft offered ZERO quarterbacks that were worthy of the first round, let alone the first overall pick (EJ Manual went in the first, but shouldn't have).  One plus is that Eric Fisher is the only member on this list that was drafted after the new collective bargaining agreement that brought the top draft pick pay scale out of the crazy contracts that you had with the other three.

2010 Eric Berry - Safety

Of the four Eric Berry is far and away the best pick.  He has made the pro bowl in every NFL season that he has been healthy, and the only thing I can complain about is the fact that his contract is out of whack with the others at his position in the league.  Until Jairus Byrd signed his free agent contract this year, Berry was the top paid safety.  I'm not saying that he shouldn't be paid among the top safeties, but the fact that he is still on his rookie contract speak volumes that he has probably been overpaid for his position over the years.  However, Berry is the caliber of player that you should get from a top 5 pick.  I would also consider his draft to be the strongest overall first round of the four players as well.  Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Russell Okung, Joe Haden, Earl Thomas, JPP, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas are a sampling of the strength of this draft.

2009 Tyson Jackson - Defensive End

The only one of the three picks that was widely criticized for being drafted this high, Tyson Jackson finally moved on to the Atlanta Falcons this year after robbing the Chiefs of millions for production that could have been filled by a 4th round pick in most drafts.  It isn't Jackson's fault that he was drafted about 20 picks higher than he was supposed to be, but he would have to be one of the Chiefs most disappointing draft picks based on the spot he was drafted and contract he was given.  This is another year that the Chiefs could have gone quarterback, but there wasn't anything after Matthew Stafford (who I'm not a big fan of) worth drafting.  Would you be happier with Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, or Pat White?  I can somewhat see why they took a chance on Matt Cassel after looking at that QB draft.  One again though, this has to be one of the worst drafts of recent memory.  Clay Matthews went at no. 26 to the Packers, but listen to the top 5.

1.  Matthew Stafford
2.  Jason Smith
3.  Tyson Jackson
4.  Aaron Curry
5.  Mark Sanchez


Would you rather have anyone other than Stafford over Jackson after what the others have done in the league?  The top 10 doesn't get much better from there.  I have to admit that at the time of the draft I wanted Aaron Curry, but I follow the NFL more than I probably should, and I cannot tell you who he is currently playing for, if he is playing at all.

2008 Glenn Dorsey - Defensive Tackle

Glenn Dorsey may have been the highest regarded can't miss prospect of the four coming out of college.  Berry was probably considered to be just as good of a player, but at this time in the league defensive tackle was considered a more important position than safety.  Dorsey wasn't helped by the move to a 3-4 defensive front after his rookie year as he was seen as a 3 technique tackle coming out of college, but he struggled to make the impact of a top 5 pick that you would expect.  He is a very similar player to Tyson Jackson and has had a solid career, but was really a block catching run stopper that failed to live up to his draft hype.  He also had a large contract and the Chiefs could have gotten the same production out of Mike DeVito (Undrafted Free Agent).  The overall draft itself was actually very strong, but the Chiefs were stuck in a tough spot at number 5.  I remember hoping for Matt Ryan to fall, but I would take Dorsey over the McFadden/Gholston sandwich he was in the middle of.  This draft also could be seen as stronger because its players have had the longest time period to prove their worth.  The miss on Dorsey was made up for by what I consider one of, if not the strongest Chiefs draft of all-time.  They were able to get Branden Albert, Jamaal Charles, Brandon Flowers, and Brandon Carr in the same draft.

What Might Have Been?

I know that it is very easy to say could have, should have, would have when it comes to the NFL draft. But I am not calling for the Chiefs to draft a different player in these drafts, I am making the argument that they have been unlucky in the years that they have drafted so high.  Look at the 2011 draft which is after the Chiefs only playoff appearance between 2008 and 2013 drafts.

1.  Cam Newton
2.  Von Miller
3.  Marcell Dareus
4.  AJ Green
5.  Patrick Peterson

Tell me you wouldn't take any of those players over Dorsey, Jackson, or Fisher.  I would take them all over Berry too!  Just for kicks throw in the next two.

6.  Julio Jones
7.  Aldon Smith

And don't foget...

11.  JJ Watt
14. Robert Quinn
18. Corey Liuget

That is a pretty strong draft.  By the way, the Chiefs ended up reaching for Johnathan Baldwin at no. 26 that year.  Jimmy Smith went one pick later to the Ravens.  Tell me he wouldn't fit well in Bob Sutton's press coverage.  To the Chiefs credit there were not a lot of great picks that happened around that spot in the draft, but Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick did go early in the second round.

I know that you could look at a lot of teams and say at least you're not the Raiders when it comes to top picks, which is true, but it would certainly be nice to be the Colts.  Lose a Peyton Manning and gain an Andrew Luck, but I guess the Chiefs chose to be the no. 1 overall pick a year too late.  2014 may not have the can't miss quarterback prospect, but it is highly regarded as one of the deepest drafts with at least 5 elite players at the top, and the Chiefs are sitting at no. 23 and then twiddling their thumbs until the end of the third round.

Just for fun the two previous times that the Chiefs had top 5 picks they went back to back with Derrick Thomas and Neil Smith.  That sounds a little better than Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson.

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